September 24, 2014
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VALUATION WATCH: Our Latest Valuation WARNING ended yesterday. Overvalued stocks now make up 60.02% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 20.34% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Fifteen sectors are calculated to be overvalued--six by double digits.
Another iPhone, Another Long Line, Another Problem
--Deja Vu All Over Again As Apple Deals with Big Demand and iPhone Rollout "Issues"
Apple Inc. is engaged in designing, manufacturing and marketing mobile communication and media devices, personal computers, and portable digital music players. The Company's products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, the iOS and Mac OS X operating systems, iCloud, and a range of accessory, service and support offerings. It sells its products worldwide through its online stores, its retail stores, its direct sales force, third-party wholesalers, and resellers. Apple Inc. is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
As always, "fan boys" lined up for a week or more to get their hands on the new iPhone6 models. The company also rolled out a new mobile operating system update as well. Also as always--or at least it seems so--the initial joy and satisfaction has been tempered by some design issues, software problems, and other bugs.
Initial complaints indicate that the new phones may bend if users sit on them the wrong way, the built in camera lens bulges out and catches on items, and--more significantly-- the company has pulled a bug fix update to iOS8 due to a slew of problems. The Wall Street Journal reports that "among the problems that Apple aimed to correct in the latest update were the following: fix a bug so HealthKit apps can now be made available on the App Store, fix an issue that prevented some apps from accessing photos from the photo library and fix an issue that could cause unexpected cellular data usage when receiving text messages."
One might think that these issues would damage the bottom line for Apple, but in the past iPhone rollout bugs were quickly brushed off by users as the ubiquitous smart phones and iPad tablets quickly took over their product categories.
Our models have not had time to digest the latest earnings estimates and updates for the firm, so ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on APPLE INC. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that APPLE INC has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Book Market Ratio.
As a bonus to our Daily Bulletin readers,
we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports
Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Apple HERE.
Below is today's data on AAPL:
ValuEngine Forecast |
|
Target
Price* |
Expected
Return |
1-Month |
102.34 |
-0.30% |
3-Month |
102.60 |
-0.03% |
6-Month |
103.75 |
1.08% |
1-Year |
98.99 |
-3.55% |
2-Year |
117.89 |
14.86% |
3-Year |
62.39 |
-39.21% |
Valuation & Rankings |
Valuation |
28.85% overvalued |
|
13 |
1-M Forecast Return |
-0.30% |
1-M Forecast Return Rank |
28 |
12-M Return |
46.44% |
|
89 |
Sharpe Ratio |
1.18 |
|
98 |
5-Y Avg Annual Return |
29.01% |
5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank |
94 |
Volatility |
24.57% |
|
73 |
Expected EPS Growth |
11.84% |
|
37 |
Market Cap (billions) |
618.92 |
Size Rank |
100 |
Trailing P/E Ratio |
16.42 |
|
71 |
Forward P/E Ratio |
14.68 |
Forward P/E Ratio Rank |
57 |
PEG Ratio |
1.39 |
PEG Ratio Rank |
28 |
Price/Sales |
3.47 |
|
29 |
Market/Book |
5.39 |
|
23 |
Beta |
0.86 |
Beta Rank |
60 |
Alpha |
0.21 |
Alpha Rank |
85 |
--Despite Flat Markets, VE View Performs Well
For July/August, the ValuEngine View worked its way to a decent gain of 2.62% vs a flat S&P500 return. The trailing 12 month gain of the VE View is 36% versus the S&P 500 return of 19.93%. The return since inception of the View is 130% versus the S&P's gain of 75%. While ValuEngine offers numerous ready-to-trade portfolios and newsletters designed for every risk/reward profile and every investment style, the View is our best performing newsletter under current market conditions.
Return Comparison vs. S&P 500 |
|
Last 12 Months |
VE View |
36% |
S&P 500 |
19.93% |
The View features the absolute top quality picks from our extensively tracked and tested quant models. It is the only newsletter which features picks from both the ValuEngine Stock Valuation and Forecast Model. With the View, investors can utilize the power of ValuEngine to achieve their goals in a steady and consistent manner.
Average Monthly Return Statistics |
Outperforming S&P 500 |
31.82% |
Average Return |
2.10% |
With the ValuEngine View Newsletter you Receive 20 Carefully Selected Stock Picks
Representing the Most Up-to-Date Calculations of our Award-Winning Stock Valuation and Forecast Models
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We had six winners this month—most of them in double-digit territory. Despite some early wobbles, Canadian Solar led the way with a nice 20% pick up followed closely by E-House China with a pick up of 18.63%. We also garnered good returns from Soufun, Huntington Ingalls, and Aercap Holdings.
Here are the latest results from June/July 2014:
Symbol |
Company Name |
Entry Price 7/17/14 |
Exit Price |
Change |
%Change |
AER |
AERCAP HOLDINGS |
44.74 |
49.26 |
4.52 |
10.10 |
ARRS |
ARRIS GROUP INC |
32.5 |
31.43 |
-1.07 |
-3.29 |
ATK |
ALLIANT TECHSYSTEMS |
132.81 |
132.32 |
-0.49 |
-0.37 |
AU |
ANGLOGOLD LTD |
17.79 |
17.22 |
-0.57 |
-3.20 |
BMA |
BANCO MACRO-ADR |
43.05 |
35.51 |
-7.54 |
-17.51 |
CSIQ |
CANADIAN SOLAR |
28.86 |
34.65 |
5.79 |
20.06 |
EJ |
E-HOUSE CHINA |
9.77 |
11.59 |
1.82 |
18.63 |
GNTX |
GENTEX CORP |
29.26 |
29.23 |
-0.03 |
-0.10 |
HII |
HUNTINGTON INGALLS |
91.74 |
102.79 |
11.05 |
12.04 |
MYL |
MYLAN INC |
51.63 |
47.04 |
-4.59 |
-8.89 |
PKG |
PACKAGING CORP |
67.21 |
66.12 |
-1.09 |
-1.62 |
SFUN |
SOUFUN HOLDINGS-ADR |
9.91 |
11.75 |
1.84 |
18.57 |
SID |
CIA SIDERUR-ADR |
5.1 |
4.74 |
-0.36 |
-7.06 |
SPR |
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS |
34.06 |
36.95 |
2.89 |
8.49 |
VRX |
VALEANT PHARMACEUTICALS |
121.71 |
113.72 |
-7.99 |
-6.56 |
|
VE VIEW PORTFOLIO |
|
|
GSPC |
S&P500 |
1981.57 |
1981.6 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
Our Investment Strategies Focus on Dozens of Fundamental and Technical Factors for over 7,000 Individual Stocks, Synthesize the Data, and then Come Up with a Portfolio
Looking for a monthly portfolio of stock picks which are objective and based on cutting-edge academic theory and Wall St.practice? Then subscribe to The ValuEngine View Newsletter.The ValuEngine View Portfolio is based on our highly-refined and tested ValuEngine Portfolio Strategies along with our proprietary quant-based composite scoring system. The ValuEngine View Newsletter is the product of sophisticated stock valuation and forecast models first developed by Yale Professor of Finance Zhiwu Chen.
VE View vs. S&P 500 Index Past Five Years |
|
VE View |
S&P 500 |
Ann Return |
28.40% |
17.29% |
Ann Volatility |
22.27% |
12.49% |
Sharpe Ratio |
1.28 |
1.38 |
Sortino Ratio |
2.15 |
1.76 |
Max Drawdown |
-34.94% |
-11.14% |
The ValuEngine View Newsletter is derived from the ValuEngine Aggressive and Diversified Growth BenchmarkPortfolio Strategies. These strategies are the product of ValuEngine's academic research team and combine cutting-edge financial analysis and portfolio construction techniques with real-world Wall St. know how.
CLICK HERE to Subscribe to the ValuEngine View
The ValuEngine View Newsletter portfolio has 15 primary stock picks and five alternates and is re-balanced once each month. The ValuEngine View Newsletter is published near the middle of each calendar month. An equal amount of capital is allocated to each stock. The monthly returns are calculated from the closing prices on date of publication. The performance calculation does not include any transaction costs.
ValuEngine Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe |
Stocks Undervalued |
39.98% |
Stocks Overvalued |
60.02% |
Stocks Undervalued by 20% |
12.5% |
Stocks Overvalued by 20% |
20.34% |
ValuEngine Sector Overview
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
-0.86% |
-3.16% |
2.29% |
15.47% overvalued |
12.10% |
24.96 |
|
-0.99% |
-2.67% |
2.17% |
12.60% overvalued |
11.52% |
22.07 |
|
-0.53% |
-3.27% |
3.75% |
12.36% overvalued |
9.26% |
31.73 |
|
-0.95% |
-1.90% |
5.71% |
12.35% overvalued |
18.72% |
20.31 |
|
-1.01% |
-0.40% |
-0.73% |
10.53% overvalued |
23.50% |
19.70 |
|
-0.66% |
-3.54% |
8.55% |
10.49% overvalued |
17.39% |
30.56 |
|
-0.77% |
-3.49% |
-5.98% |
8.38% overvalued |
0.83% |
24.05 |
|
-0.64% |
-2.01% |
2.82% |
7.93% overvalued |
7.17% |
17.66 |
|
-0.65% |
-3.00% |
-3.44% |
6.81% overvalued |
5.89% |
28.81 |
|
-0.72% |
-5.55% |
-0.02% |
6.00% overvalued |
7.29% |
17.10 |
|
-0.75% |
-2.87% |
6.39% |
5.67% overvalued |
10.42% |
20.22 |
|
-0.55% |
-3.11% |
-1.47% |
5.11% overvalued |
15.60% |
24.03 |
|
-0.59% |
-3.81% |
-2.86% |
4.51% overvalued |
7.78% |
22.62 |
|
-0.46% |
-7.52% |
10.42% |
4.45% overvalued |
10.20% |
25.17 |
|
-0.51% |
-4.41% |
-1.26% |
3.09% overvalued |
8.18% |
24.38 |
|
-0.08% |
-6.67% |
1.55% |
6.60% undervalued |
-1.78% |
25.46 |
ValuEngine.com Products and Services
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