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July 30, 2015


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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 51.86% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 19.67% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  Nine sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with three at or near double digits.


--Facebook, THE Social Network?

Facebook Beats Expectations With Good Quarter

Facebook Inc. (FB) operates a social networking website worldwide. The Company's products for users are free of charge and available on the Web, mobile Web, and mobile platforms, such as Android and iOS. Its website enables users to connect, share, discover, and communicate with each other. The Facebook Platform is a set of tools and application programming interfaces that developers can use to build social apps on Facebook or to integrate their Websites with Facebook. It offers products that enable advertisers and marketers to engage with its users. Facebook Inc. is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.

Unlike the latest from Twitter we discussed yesterday, Facebook reported a far brighter earnings and growth picture with its earnings for Q2. Facebook exceeded Wall St. expectations AND maintained good user-base growth. For the quarter, revenue rose 39% to $4.04 billion--up from $2.91 billion a year ago. Net income was $719 million, or $0.25/share, compared to $0.30/share a year ago. The company reported a profit of $0.50/share, which beat analyst estimates of $0.47/share.

The company's "monthly active users" (MAU) in this quarter totaled 1.49 billion, and increase of 13% year-over-year. Increases in users were within that range in all categories. Those are the sort of numbers advertisers like to see, and the company's advertising revenues increased accordingly--43% year-over-year.

Analysts note that the company growth and associated revenues have scaled up nicely, and its rate of growth is similar to Google's when it was at its height. Mobile growth has been very strong, and the stock price has responded in kind. Facebook's performance stands in stark contrast to Twitter and other sites along the same "flight path"--such as Yelp.

Despite this growth, our forecasts remain a bit flat long term. This may change as price movements are digested and analysts increase their earnings estimates moving forward. Facebook is expected to begin to monetize Instagram, the popular photo sharing site, and if it can duplicate its success there, then revenues could dramatically increase as well.

For now, ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on FACEBOOK INC-A for 2015-07-29. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that FACEBOOK INC-A has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Price Sales Ratio.

Below is today's more extensive data on FB:

 


ValuEngine Forecast
 
Target
Price*
Expected
Return
1-Month
96.79
-0.20%
3-Month
96.44
-0.57%
6-Month
97.30
0.32%
1-Year
94.64
-2.43%
2-Year
113.46
16.99%
3-Year
77.68
-19.91%

Valuation & Rankings
Valuation
17.47% overvalued
Valuation Rank(?)
23
1-M Forecast Return
-0.20%
1-M Forecast Return Rank
35
12-M Return
31.58%
Momentum Rank(?)
88
Sharpe Ratio
0.75
Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)
85
5-Y Avg Annual Return
34.50%
5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank
96
Volatility
45.70%
Volatility Rank(?)
37
Expected EPS Growth
35.59%
EPS Growth Rank(?)
70
Market Cap (billions)
271.28
Size Rank
100
Trailing P/E Ratio
82.19
Trailing P/E Rank(?)
31
Forward P/E Ratio
60.62
Forward P/E Ratio Rank
6
PEG Ratio
2.31
PEG Ratio Rank
19
Price/Sales
20.08
Price/Sales Rank(?)
6
Market/Book
17.25
Market/Book Rank(?)
7
Beta
0.48
Beta Rank
74
Alpha
0.22
Alpha Rank
87

As a bonus to our Newsletter readers,
we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on FB HERE.

 

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The ValuEngine View Newsletter is the product of a sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by ValuEngine's academic research team. It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. In addition, the portoflio uses top picks from our Forecast Model. In essence, the portfolio is constructed with the best picks from our main propiretary models

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  VE View vs. S&P 500 Index Past Five Years
VE View
S&P 500
Ann Return
19.75% 14.13%
Ann Volatility
21.06% 11.13%
Sharpe Ratio
0.94 1.27
Sortino Ratio
1.55 1.56
Max Drawdown
-34.94% -11.14%

  The ValuEngine View Newsletter is derived from the ValuEngine Aggressive and Diversified Growth BenchmarkPortfolio Strategies. These strategies are the product of ValuEngine's academic research team and combine cutting-edge financial analysis and portfolio construction techniques with real-world Wall St. know how. 

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The ValuEngine View Newsletter portfolio has 15 primary stock picks and five alternates and is re-balanced once each month. The ValuEngine View Newsletter is published near the middle of each calendar month. An equal amount of capital is allocated to each stock. The monthly returns are calculated from the closing prices on date of publication. The performance calculation does not include any transaction costs.

 

 

ValuEngine Market Overview

Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
48.14%
Stocks Overvalued
51.86%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
20.42%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
19.67%

ValuEngine Sector Overview

Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
-0.03%
-0.47%
15.32%
19.09% overvalued
16.58%
30.50
0.97%
-0.69%
5.15%
14.92% overvalued
-1.69%
20.19
0.35%
-1.62%
1.62%
10.06% overvalued
0.04%
22.62
0.57%
-3.28%
-0.91%
7.06% overvalued
-5.06%
25.22
0.58%
-1.84%
6.48%
6.27% overvalued
-0.80%
28.56
1.33%
-1.74%
3.26%
5.64% overvalued
-2.66%
24.23
0.56%
-0.98%
1.85%
4.32% overvalued
-0.78%
17.48
0.67%
-2.60%
-1.67%
4.10% overvalued
3.59%
25.71
0.14%
-4.95%
-0.83%
4.06% overvalued
-1.61%
29.30
1.29%
-1.65%
-3.73%
0.22% undervalued
-2.77%
17.03
0.88%
-2.02%
-2.29%
0.30% undervalued
-7.09%
20.61
1.53%
-3.75%
-2.53%
1.58% undervalued
-10.40%
17.08
0.68%
-1.97%
0.35%
2.29% undervalued
0.39%
23.99
0.85%
-5.66%
-2.32%
5.68% undervalued
-8.29%
19.35
2.48%
-10.55%
-11.32%
12.77% undervalued
-45.11%
22.21
1.13%
-9.70%
-10.95%
18.24% undervalued
-35.80%
22.38

 

 

 

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