October 21, 2015

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 45.46% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 14.65% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Four sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

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Car Crash Redux

Toyota Issues Massive Recall Notice

Toyota Motor Corporation (TM) produces, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, boats, airplanes and other products in Japan and most foreign countries. The Company is also involved in the businesses of real estate, civil engineering, insurance,etc.

We have discussed a lot of good news for car manufacturers lately, lower gas prices, higher sales, recovery in major markets--even as trouble in emerging ones has loomed. But, auto makers have stumbled despite recent successes and now momentum --and least on the PR front--seems to be headed in the opposite direction.

Volkswagen's diesel-engine control software debacle hit them hard, completely wrecking their long-terms plans for global domination. We discussed only yesterday how pricey Tesla electric vehicles now face a downgrade from Consumer Reports. GM posted record profits today, only to see that good news washed out due to costs associated with the replacement of faulty ignition switches on many of their vehicles.

Now, the manufacturer most closely associated with high quality, Toyota, also joins the bad news club as it faces yet another recall for millions of its own vehicles. Toyota announced today that it will recall 6.5 million vehicles worldwide due to a lubrication issue with driver's side power-window switches. The switch, when improperly greased, may stick, melt, and cause a fire in the vehicles. This follows on the heels of the massive recall related to faulty Takata air bags.

Vehicles effected by the latest recall were built between 2005-2006 and 2008-2010. North American models effected include hugely popular Corolla and Camry models and will impact @2.7 million vehicles here.

To add insult to injury, the company issued a similar recall in the past when the switches were installed with too much grease--which is also a fire hazard-- rather than too little. In fact, some of the vehicles recalled today were also recalled back in 2009 for switches with too much grease. So, a bad part was replaced with another faulty part and the work will have to be performed yet again on the company dime.

Drivers with recalled models will require a trip to the dealer for a new switch. This is a simple repair and it can be done in less than an hour. Costs should be far more modest than those faced in the airbag recall--millions, not billions of dollars. However, this latest blow to the company's reputation for quality will not help the bottom line.

Below is today's data on TM:

VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on TOYOTA MOTOR CP for 2015-10-20. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that TOYOTA MOTOR CP has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and P/E Ratio.

ValuEngine Forecast
	Target Price*	Expected Return
1-Month	123.45	1.01%
3-Month	125.45	2.65%
6-Month	126.77	3.73%
1-Year	137.06	12.15%
2-Year	130.20	6.53%
3-Year	126.65	3.63%

Valuation & Rankings
Valuation	3.16% undervalued	Valuation Rank(?)	52
1-M Forecast Return	1.01%	1-M Forecast Return Rank	98
12-M Return	7.85%	Momentum Rank(?)	69
Sharpe Ratio	0.50	Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)	83
5-Y Avg Annual Return	9.87%	5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank	78
Volatility	19.60%	Volatility Rank(?)	75
Expected EPS Growth	15.22%	EPS Growth Rank(?)	51
Market Cap (billions)	192.21	Size Rank	100
Trailing P/E Ratio	10.19	Trailing P/E Rank(?)	90
Forward P/E Ratio	8.85	Forward P/E Ratio Rank	87
PEG Ratio	0.67	PEG Ratio Rank	53
Price/Sales	0.79	Price/Sales Rank(?)	72
Market/Book	1.30	Market/Book Rank(?)	67
Beta	0.72	Beta Rank	59
Alpha	0.02	Alpha Rank	65

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