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ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter June 24, 2016

 

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June 24, 2016


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VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 47.55% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 16.86% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Eight sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

ValuEngine Index Overview

Index
Week Open
Friday AM
Change
% Change
YTD
DJIA
17736.87
17531.7
-205.17
-1.16%
0.61%
NASDAQ
4856.69
4750.25
-106.44
-2.19%
-5.14%
RUSSELL 2000
1146.39
1138.55
-7.84
-0.68%
0.23%
S&P 500
2075.58
2053.64
-21.94
-1.06%
0.47%

ValuEngine Market Overview

Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued
52.45%
Stocks Overvalued
47.55%
Stocks Undervalued by 20%
22.87%
Stocks Overvalued by 20%
16.86%

ValuEngine Sector Overview

Sector
Change
MTD
YTD
Valuation
Last 12-MReturn
P/E Ratio
Consumer Staples
0.99%
1.91%
6.71%
11.40% overvalued
3.24%
23.96
Basic Materials
1.66%
5.40%
35.64%
11.20% overvalued
19.99%
29.04
Oils-Energy
2.11%
4.29%
15.44%
8.79% overvalued
-29.30%
22.97
Utilities
1.73%
2.98%
9.24%
8.48% overvalued
3.85%
23.65
Multi-Sector Conglomerates
1.62%
1.46%
5.95%
5.42% overvalued
-7.49%
18.18
Industrial Products
1.80%
2.02%
7.73%
4.85% overvalued
-8.78%
21.47
Aerospace
0.37%
-1.53%
-3.36%
1.29% overvalued
-4.31%
19.09
Computer and Technology
1.58%
1.14%
6.96%
1.03% overvalued
-9.22%
28.30
Business Services
1.13%
0.55%
9.42%
1.05% undervalued
-9.06%
23.12
Consumer Discretionary
1.08%
0.59%
3.22%
1.16% undervalued
-12.21%
22.78
Finance
1.33%
0.13%
2.53%
1.60% undervalued
-5.33%
16.05
Construction
0.94%
-0.17%
19.36%
2.42% undervalued
-5.31%
21.07
Transportation
1.55%
-0.09%
1.94%
5.83% undervalued
-27.25%
13.49
Auto-Tires-Trucks
1.41%
-0.36%
-0.48%
6.83% undervalued
-17.11%
12.15
Medical
1.32%
-0.40%
-6.50%
7.59% undervalued
-23.44%
27.00
Retail-Wholesale
0.95%
0.89%
-2.82%
9.70% undervalued
-14.37%
22.38


Sector Talk--Transportation

  Below, we present the latest data on Transportation stocks from our Professional Stock Analysis Service    Top five lists are provided for each category.  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares. We have been following the sector closely of late because it has been correlated so tightly to overall equity price moves.

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation (%)
Last 12-M Return (%)
HA
HAWAIIAN HLDGS
36.92
-18.11%
51.75%
VA
VIRGIN AMERICA
56.26
N/A
89.81%
VLRS
CONTROLADORA VL
17.79
N/A
44.05%
LUV
SOUTHWEST AIR
39.59
-19.00%
14.49%
SKYW
SKYWEST INC
25.64
21.34%
61.66%

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation (%)
Last 12-M Return (%)
HA
HAWAIIAN HLDGS
36.92
-18.11%
51.75%
VA
VIRGIN AMERICA
56.26
N/A
89.81%
VLRS
CONTROLADORA VL
17.79
N/A
44.05%
LUV
SOUTHWEST AIR
39.59
-19.00%
14.49%
SKYW
SKYWEST INC
25.64
21.34%
61.66%

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation (%)
Last 12-M Return (%)
LUV
SOUTHWEST AIR
39.59
-19.00%
14.49%
HA
HAWAIIAN HLDGS
36.92
-18.11%
51.75%
DAL
DELTA AIR LINES
38.31
-38.01%
-11.11%
ALK
ALASKA AIR GRP
59.14
-27.46%
-11.09%
UAL
UNITED CONT HLD
45.17
-13.46%
-18.21%

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
Name
Mkt Price
Valuation (%)
Last 12-M Return (%)
YRCW
YRC WORLDWD INC
9.37
300.00%
-32.59%
BRS
BRISTOW GROUP
14.25
300.00%
-73.45%
GLOG
GASLOG LTD
13.05
79.29%
-37.77%
ATSG
AIR TRANSPT SVC
13.86
76.18%
31.87%
TAL
TAL INTL GRP
13.64
73.18%
-62.11%
 

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers,
we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Stock Reports

The Boeing Company (BA) is one of the world's major aerospace firms. The company operates in three principal segments: commercial airplanes; military aircraft and missiles; and space and communications.

ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on BOEING CO for 2016-06-23. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that BOEING CO has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Book Market Ratio.

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on Boeing HERE.


ValuEngine Forecast
 
Target
Price*
Expected
Return
1-Month
133.69 0.10%
3-Month
134.44 0.67%
6-Month
135.77 1.66%
1-Year
135.21 1.24%
2-Year
142.34 6.58%
3-Year
140.25 5.02%

Valuation & Rankings
Valuation
1.82% undervalued Valuation Rank(?)
52
1-M Forecast Return
0.10% 1-M Forecast Return Rank
59
12-M Return
-7.53% Momentum Rank(?)
53
Sharpe Ratio
0.45 Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)
83
5-Y Avg Annual Return
9.61% 5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank
81
Volatility
21.16% Volatility Rank(?)
73
Expected EPS Growth
17.13% EPS Growth Rank(?)
56
Market Cap (billions)
95.21 Size Rank
100
Trailing P/E Ratio
17.03 Trailing P/E Rank(?)
69
Forward P/E Ratio
14.54 Forward P/E Ratio Rank
57
PEG Ratio
0.99 PEG Ratio Rank
44
Price/Sales
0.99 Price/Sales Rank(?)
66
Market/Book
23.19 Market/Book Rank(?)
6
Beta
1.11 Beta Rank
39
Alpha
-0.10 Alpha Rank
42
 
 
 

What's Hot
BREXIT

One gets the sense that there are a lot of voters in the UK re-evaluating their votes from yesterday right now. As of this writing, we've seen some panic selling across the globe as the "leave" victory has caught many by surprise. Many analysts were attributing last week's gains as indicative of positive "remain" sentiment.

This move by the elderly, lower-educated, less-cosmopolitan, and more xenophobic demographics in the UK will have unforeseen consequences for sure. Right now, we have seen a crash in the Pound, the above-mentioned stock sell off, and a lot of worry for the future of the EU-- and even the UK itself.

What lessons can be learned here? Don't underestimate the power of the xenophobic, nationalistic, and populist appeal. It has a way of biting one in the "rear" as elites in all walks of life have fallen radically out-of-touch with those bearing the brunt of their policy failures, the economic crises, austerity measures, etc.

In the US, that brings us to one Mr. Donald J. Trump. His kind/supportive words for the Brexit vote results today--and those from a variety of conservatives motivated by the same issues as many of the "leave" voters "across the pond" --indicate a certain fuzzy grasp on reality.

For now, as has been the case throughout the Obama administration, the US remains the currency, economy and stock market of last resort. One expects a stronger dollar, a lower market--for now--and a continued policy of easy money. It is hard to imagine the Fed raising rates now, and one would expect that the "leave" voters and the resultant chaos just locked in current monetary policy until after the presidential election--at least. And, one wouldn't be surprised to see lower rates in many countries as a response.

As always, remember that the panic moment is the almost always the worst time to dump assets. Even though it is counter intuitive, it would be best to stand pat, or even buy right now--when "blood is in the streets." Of course, that may be tough for many who have been through so much of late, but try not to dump holdings and lock in losses that should be temporary.

ValuEngineCapital Money Management Services

We are pleased to announce that ValuEngine Capital has begun trading for our clients. ValuEngine Capital, a registered investment advisory firm, offers our clients investment-management services based on industry-leading ValuEngine research. ValuEngine Capital melds the cutting-edge financial theory of ValuEngine's award-winning quantitative independent research with the best real-world Wall St. practices. ValuEngine Capital offers refined investment portfolios for investors of all risk-reward profiles.

ValuEngine Capital is offering three investment strategies to clients, the ValuEngine View Strategy, the ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy, and the ValuEngine Diversified Strategy.

ValuEngine View Strategy: The ValuEngine View Strategy is the product of a sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by ValuEngine's academic research team. It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. The ValuEngine View portfolio is constructed by integrating both our Aggressive Growth—based on the Valuation Model--and Diversified Growth—based on the Forecast Model-- Portfolio Strategies. The ValuEngine View Strategy is constructed by integrating this model along with some basic rules for market capitalization and industry diversification. The portfolio has 15 stocks and is rebalanced once each month.

Professional Portfolio Management Services

ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy: The ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy is the product of ValuEngine's Forecast Model. This model was developed by a team of PhD's and is based on the cutting edge economic theories of Wall Street professionals and Ivy League academics. We carefully examine dozens of fundamental and technical factors for over 8,000 individual stocks, synthesize the data, and then come up with a sector-diverse list of our best and worst forecast 1-month return stocks. Short and long-term historic factors in the VE Forecast model's calculation include past-valuation levels of the stock and its recent price-momentum factor relative to other stocks. The ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy utilizes Forecast Model outputs along with market capitalization, price, and sector diversification rules to construct a monthly portfolio made up of 16 stocks for both the long and short sides.

Strategies To Suit All Investor Types

The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy: The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy invests in a variety of asset classes in order to provide investors with stable returns and a high- dividend yield coupled with significantly lower risk than single-asset products. The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy may include ETFs focused on commodities, stock indices, REITS, bonds, emerging markets, and other suitable products. By reaping the benefits of diversification, the ValuEngine Diversified Strategy seeks to remain resilient during times of market volatility. The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy is designed for investors seeking management for their IRA and other retirement funds as well as those whose risk-profile is not suitable for our other strategies.

For more information, please contact us by email at info@ValuEngineCapital.com or by phone at (407) 308-5686.

ValuEngine.com is an independent research provider, producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 7,000 US and Canadian equities every trading day.

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