January 30, 2015

Valuation Watch: Overvalued stocks now make up 44.17% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 13.93% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more.  Seven sectors are calculated to be overvalued--with three at or near double digits.

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Chevron (CVX) is the fifth-largest integrated energy company in the world. Headquartered in San Ramon, California, and conducting business in approximately 180 countries, this highly competitive corporation is engaged in every aspect of the oil and natural gas industry, including exploration and production; refining, marketing and transportation; chemicals manufacturing and sales; and power generation.

ValuEngine continues its HOLD recommendation on CHEVRON CORP for 2015-01-29. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that CHEVRON CORP has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size but UNATTRACTIVE Earnings Growth Rate.

Below is today's data on Chevron:

ValuEngine Forecast
	Target Price*	Expected Return
1-Month	103.51	0.49%
3-Month	105.06	2.00%
6-Month	105.22	2.16%
1-Year	109.11	5.94%
2-Year	100.76	-2.17%
3-Year	105.61	2.53%

Valuation & Rankings
Valuation	6.84% undervalued	Valuation Rank(?)	58
1-M Forecast Return	0.49%	1-M Forecast Return Rank	84
12-M Return	-11.21%	Momentum Rank(?)	38
Sharpe Ratio	0.40	Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)	72
5-Y Avg Annual Return	7.53%	5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank	64
Volatility	19.04%	Volatility Rank(?)	84
Expected EPS Growth	-60.14%	EPS Growth Rank(?)	5
Market Cap (billions)	195.59	Size Rank	100
Trailing P/E Ratio	10.34	Trailing P/E Rank(?)	90
Forward P/E Ratio	25.94	Forward P/E Ratio Rank	18
PEG Ratio	n/a	PEG Ratio Rank	n/a
Price/Sales	0.88	Price/Sales Rank(?)	71
Market/Book	1.28	Market/Book Rank(?)	68
Beta	1.14	Beta Rank	44
Alpha	-0.23	Alpha Rank	33

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Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on McDonald's HERE.

Sector Talk--Transportation

  Below, we present the latest data on Transportation stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI).    Top five lists are provided for each category.  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares. 

Please Click Here to Download a FREE Demo of ValuEngine's Professional VEI Software Package.

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Composite Score

Top-Five Transportation Stocks--Most Overvalued

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AAII Selects ValuEngine.com "Best of the Web"

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) was founded in 1978 by Dr. James Cloonan. Its purpose is to distill current financial theory and academic knowledge in a manner which allows its members to beat the market. In short, AAII's philosophy and membership base is a perfect match for ValuEngine's various newsletters, website services, and other products.

ValuEngine clients access proprietary stock valuation data on more than 4000 US equities in addition to forecast and ratings for more than 8000 stocks. They can also purchase ready-made portfolios based on all of our data which are designed to fit a variety of investment styles and risk/reward profiles.

ValuEngine is always searching for self-directed investors who recognize the value of our services--just like the members of AAII, and for that reason we are proud to announce that we were recently selected one of AAII's "Best of the Web" services.  AAII puts Valuengine.com within the "top 16 sites for consensus analyst estimates, ratings and recommendations, stock screening, and stock valuation.

It is important to note that in an era of free content, apps, and services, ValuEngine has almost always been the only fee-based service to win a stock valuation award from AAII. We have won this award numerous times and AAII notes that

ValuEngine provides a wide range of services for individual investors and is an excellent source for stock valuation. It was chosen as Editor’s Choice because of its in-depth analysis and innovative valuation techniques that are not available at other sites.

ValuEngine CEO Paul Henneman has always been a strong supporter of AAII's program and services for individual investors and noted that "ValuEngine's objective, cutting-edge research provides the tools for any investor looking to reduce management fees and handle their own portfolios. Savvy individuals, Wall St. professionals, and the leaders of AAII have known for years that ValuEngine.com offers an outstanding suite of products which an help improve returns and beat the market. So, we are of course pleased to be recognized by AAII for yet another year."

Apple Posts Most Profitable Quarter in History

There were a lot of questions about Apple's future following the death of founder and CEO Steve Jobs, but replacement Tim Cook did a lot to bury doubts once and for all with the most recent earnings report. Apple reported the greatest quarterly profit of any company in history this week. The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $74.6 billion and record quarterly net profit of $18 billion, or $3.06 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $57.6 billion and net profit of $13.1 billion, or $2.07 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 39.9 percent compared to 37.9 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 65 percent of the quarter’s revenue.

The tech juggernaut's profit of $18 billion dollars handily beat the @ $16 billion prior record posted by Exxon/Mobil back in 2012. The latest iPhones led to the staggering number, with 74.5 MILLION of the devices sold for the quarter. The company's cash reserves now approach $180 BILLION. That's enough cash to buy major competitors outright--if they wanted.

Buyers purchased large quantities of the bigger, more expensive, and more profitable iPhone 6 Plus, and that really boosted the company's bottom line. Sales of iPads were less impressive, but that didn't matter due to the huge demand for the latest iPhone models during the Christmas season. Analysts note that the phones were also wildly popular in China, a fact which bodes well for the future. Since the death of Steve Jobs, Cook has essentially increased quarterly profits 300%. He has also helped the company by getting rid of management figures who were apostles of Jobs, but perhaps not as effective as they should have been.

ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on APPLE INC for 2015-01-29. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that APPLE INC has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Sharpe Ratio.

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The ValuEngine View Newsletter is the product of a sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by ValuEngine's academic research team. It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. In addition, the portoflio uses top picks from our Forecast Model. In essence, the portfolio is constructed with the best picks from our main propiretary models

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