July 29, 2016

VALUATION WATCH: Overvalued stocks now make up 45.37% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 15.22% of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. Six sectors are calculated to be overvalued.

ValuEngine Index Overview

ValuEngine Market Overview

ValuEngine Sector Overview

Sector Talk--Basic Materials

  Below, we present the latest data on Basic Materials stocks from our Professional Stock Analysis Service    Top five lists are provided for each category.  We applied some basic liquidity criteria--share price greater than $3 and average daily volume in excess of 100k shares. We have been following the sector closely of late because it has been correlated so tightly to overall equity price moves.

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Composite Score

Top-Five Basic Materials Stocks--Most Overvalued

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United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is the world's largest express carrier, the world's largest package delivery company and a leading global provider of specialized transportation and logistics services. Their primary business is the time-definite delivery of packages and documents throughout the United States and in over 200 other countries and territories. They have established a vast and reliable global transportation infrastructure, developed a comprehensive, competitive and guaranteed portfolio of services and consistently supported these services with advanced technology.

VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION: ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on United Parcel Service for 2016-07-28. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that United Parcel Service has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Sharpe Ratio.

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on United Parcel Service HERE.

Valuation & Rankings
Valuation	5.40% undervalued	Valuation Rank(?)	56
1-M Forecast Return	0.39%	1-M Forecast Return Rank	79
12-M Return	8.80%	Momentum Rank(?)	70
Sharpe Ratio	0.51	Sharpe Ratio Rank(?)	85
5-Y Avg Annual Return	7.80%	5-Y Avg Annual Rtn Rank	76
Volatility	15.41%	Volatility Rank(?)	84
Expected EPS Growth	6.18%	EPS Growth Rank(?)	34
Market Cap (billions)	98.40	Size Rank	100
Trailing P/E Ratio	19.21	Trailing P/E Rank(?)	64
Forward P/E Ratio	18.09	Forward P/E Ratio Rank	41
PEG Ratio	3.11	PEG Ratio Rank	14
Price/Sales	1.67	Price/Sales Rank(?)	51
Market/Book	39.68	Market/Book Rank(?)	4
Beta	0.91	Beta Rank	49
Alpha	0.09	Alpha Rank	77

What's Hot

ValuEngine View Portfolio Rides Brexit Bounce To 8% Gain

For June/July, we had a great month as the markets shook off the “Brexit” fallout and powered up once again. Our long-only ValueEngine View portfolio matched the upswing perfectly with a big gain of 8.82%. We beat the benchmark S&P 500's similar gain of 8.39% by 43 bps. The trailing 12 month gain of the VE View is -5.23% versus the S&P 500 gain of 2.9%. The return since inception of the View is 108.25% versus the S&P's gain of 91.48%.

We had a perfect 100% hit ratio this month with 15/15 winning positions. Seven of our picks provided double-digit returns with Thor Industries leading the way with a great 22% pick up. Other double-digit returns came from Cooper-Standard, AMN Health Care, Employers Holdings, Smith and Wesson, and Windstream. The big gains meant that none of our picks hit stop-losses levels set at 10%. We will retain those stops at the 10% level moving forward.

Currently, the Valuation Model finds that 45.37% of the equities to which we can assign a valuation are overvalued--with 15.22% coming in overvalued at 20% or more. Seven sectors are calculated to be overvalued. Our valuation figures still show a "normal" market, with valuations nowhere near that bargain level they presented in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.

The markets in the US and elsewhere certainly shook off that Brexit panic, with several indices setting new records over the past few weeks. Many analysts found that the uncertainty in the EU removed any possible scenario where the Fed would raise rates any time soon. Of course, that is not to say that some Fed officials don't favor increases, but the time to hit the brakes may have passed by given the fact that the US is in the midst of a presidential election, and the central bank is notoriously skittish about any hint of political bias.

Once again, after this week's meetings, the Fed has stood pat. But, if good data for the US and world economy holds up, the Fed may push for an increase in September. Again, we find that the labor market should still be given some room to run. As always, and as we repeat like a mantra, the balancing act between the dual mandate of control inflation and foster full employment creates tension.

In our July portfolio, we turnover just four positions. On a sector basis the model likes Consumer Discretionary stocks and Tech stocks, We add one selection from our Valuation model's aggressive-growth strategy, one position from our Forecast model's diversified-growth strategy, and two positions favored by both.

Below are the latest results from our VE View Strategy Newsletter:

ValuEngineCapital Money Management Services

We are pleased to announce that ValuEngine Capital has begun trading for our clients. ValuEngine Capital, a registered investment advisory firm, offers our clients investment-management services based on industry-leading ValuEngine research. ValuEngine Capital melds the cutting-edge financial theory of ValuEngine's award-winning quantitative independent research with the best real-world Wall St. practices. ValuEngine Capital offers refined investment portfolios for investors of all risk-reward profiles.

ValuEngine Capital is offering three investment strategies to clients, the ValuEngine View Strategy, the ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy, and the ValuEngine Diversified Strategy.

ValuEngine View Strategy: The ValuEngine View Strategy is the product of a sophisticated stock valuation model that was first developed by ValuEngine's academic research team. It utilizes a three factor approach: fundamental variables such as a company's trailing 12-month Earnings-Per-Share (EPS), the analyst consensus estimate of the company's future 12-month EPS, and the 30-year Treasury yield are all used to create a more accurate reflection of a company's fair value. A total of eleven additional firm specific variables are also used. The ValuEngine View portfolio is constructed by integrating both our Aggressive Growth—based on the Valuation Model--and Diversified Growth—based on the Forecast Model-- Portfolio Strategies. The ValuEngine View Strategy is constructed by integrating this model along with some basic rules for market capitalization and industry diversification. The portfolio has 15 stocks and is rebalanced once each month.

ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy: The ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy is the product of ValuEngine's Forecast Model. This model was developed by a team of PhD's and is based on the cutting edge economic theories of Wall Street professionals and Ivy League academics. We carefully examine dozens of fundamental and technical factors for over 8,000 individual stocks, synthesize the data, and then come up with a sector-diverse list of our best and worst forecast 1-month return stocks. Short and long-term historic factors in the VE Forecast model's calculation include past-valuation levels of the stock and its recent price-momentum factor relative to other stocks. The ValuEngine Market Neutral Strategy utilizes Forecast Model outputs along with market capitalization, price, and sector diversification rules to construct a monthly portfolio made up of 16 stocks for both the long and short sides.

Strategies To Suit All Investor Types

The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy: The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy invests in a variety of asset classes in order to provide investors with stable returns and a high- dividend yield coupled with significantly lower risk than single-asset products. The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy may include ETFs focused on commodities, stock indices, REITS, bonds, emerging markets, and other suitable products. By reaping the benefits of diversification, the ValuEngine Diversified Strategy seeks to remain resilient during times of market volatility. The ValuEngine Diversified Strategy is designed for investors seeking management for their IRA and other retirement funds as well as those whose risk-profile is not suitable for our other strategies.

For more information, please contact us by email at info@ValuEngineCapital.com or by phone at (407) 308-5686.

ValuEngine.com is an independent research provider, producing buy/hold/sell recommendations, target price, and valuations on over 7,000 US and Canadian equities every trading day.

 Visit www.ValuEngine.com for more information

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